ECB expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its policy meeting Thursday but could pave the way for a decline in March, while the Eurozone recession is threatened by the fallout from the debt crisis and the situation in Greece.
If no agreement is reached by Thursday on the austerity program needed to allow the raising of the Greek State, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will probably be attacked questions about the possibility that the institution waives its potential profits on Greek bonds it holds.
And if an agreement is reached by then, it must explain its terms, its consequences and the precedent thus created.
Financial markets will also be on the lookout for clues that the ECB expects its second refinancing operation three years, scheduled for 29 February.
The first such operation in late December, allowed him to inject 489 billion euros into the financial system and to push at least temporarily the pressure on the banks of the euro area.
The latest Reuters poll forecast of professional money markets, the ECB could allocate additional 400 billion to banks at the end of the month.
Regarding rates, the threat of increasing net of a relapse into recession in the euro area has increased the likelihood of an easing in March, especially as inflationary pressures have receded ;.
THE SITUATION Degrades
The ECB has never cut its refinancing rate, the main instrument of monetary policy, under 1% and some members of the Governing Council are reluctant to make it fall below this threshold.
In March, the new forecasts for growth and inflation teams of the central bank could give additional reasons to take the plunge.
"The March forecast will be worse than December," predicts Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank. "It can be estimated at 60% probability of a rate cut in March because their growth forecast is too high."
In December, the ECB economists predicted further growth of around 0.3% in the euro area this year.
For Padhraic Garvey, head of rates strategy at ING, the ECB can afford to wait to learn more about the changing conditions before changing its rates.
"The next fall does not need to take place in March. We think it will take place during the first half," he says, adding that the decline in Euribor interbank rates is at least as important as rates of the ECB.
"The most important is that Euribor rates are trending down. The evolution of the Euribor for a month is equivalent to an actual reduction in rates, "he says
. The three-month EURIBOR , regarded as the main barometer of the market for interbank loans, dropped 26 basis points since January 1, to return as 1.1%, the lowest in 11 months … INFLATION RISK It
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reflux reflects the efficiency of the operation refinancing to three years of the ECB, which has become the main weapon to combat the crisis of the ECB since its purchases of government bonds are now running in slow motion
…… Mario Draghi said … expect the transaction to three years late creating demand "significant". And some bankers expect to see the ECB banks allocate an amount higher than EUR 400 billion provided for traders polled by Reuters.
Christian Schulz estimates that more than 1000 billion injection on Feb. 29 could create inflationary pressures.
"The ECB should react very vigorously, by raising rates," he adds.
On the Greek chapter, the ECB is under pressure from certain creditors of Athens who wish to see transferred to the Hellenic State will generate profits that the debt Greek it has acquired since the beginning of the crisis.
According to sources from the ECB, it spent 38 billion euros to acquire these bonds, 12 billion less than their face value.
Retroceding in capital gains, the ECB would contribute to the restructuring of the Greek debt finance directly without a state, which prohibit its statutes.
To do this, it could sell the shares at the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) at their purchase price, on condition of surrendering the EFSF away in Athens.
"I do not think the ECB will try to keep its obligations at any price," said Christian Schulz. "I think it would be quite happy to get rid of."