Low-fat diet for households and businesses, slashing the state budget and credit crunch could lead bank for Spain by years of economic stagnation, and force her to ask, such as Greece, an international aid.
Forced by the European Union to reduce the deficit and meet the new budget rules, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy promised that the draft budget presented Friday would be "very, very austere."
While the Spanish economy is already on the verge of its second recession in three years, that unemployment exceeds 22% and that the costs of bonds go up, Some economists predict the country a "lost decade" like the one Japan experienced in the 1990s and which he never fully recovered.
Others, including the Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, consider that Spain could result in the entire euro area a new crisis.
"We signed a suicide pact, Europe, accepting that everyone could save," said Luis Garicano, an economist at the London School of Economics and a researcher in the circle reflection Spanish FEDEA. "Europe must admit that this creates a downward spiral that does a disservice to anyone."
The Spanish economy, characterized by a debt of nearly 70% of gross domestic product (GDP) and private debt among the highest in the euro area , represents more than twice those of Ireland, Portugal and Greece combined, which excludes its partners leaves the sink.
DRYING OF CREDIT
In financial markets, the financing costs of the Spanish debt have certainly receded after last year reached their highest levels for 14 years, but the recent renewed concern weeks resulted in a rise in yield spreads between Spanish and German bonds.
"There is a risk that Spain forced eventually to seek financial assistance in order to borrow at reasonable interest rates," said Ben May at Capital Economics.
The draft government budget Rajoy will include at least 35 billion euros in savings and new revenues, including an increase in certain taxes and wage cuts and staffing in the Public .
And Budget 2013 promises to be just as rigorous.
Problem: Spanish domestic demand, a key driver of growth in the boom years before the crisis, is now more to go.
The country's GDP expected to contract 1.7% this year. In turn, property prices fell 11.2% in the fourth quarter of last year and some are predicting 30% price decline further. The construction sector, flourishing during the housing boom, collapsed after 2008, which resulted in several million additional unemployed.
The unemployment rate in Spain is thus twice the average for all EU and approach 50% among youth. The kingdom also displays the rate of development of the highest poverty in Europe.
POLICY DANGEROUS TURN
The situation of enterprises is not much better and even the most promising sectors are cutting their workforces, like tourism (11% of GDP), where the group Sol Melia had sell assets in late 2011 to reduce its debt, despite the increased number of visitors favored by the Arab spring.
"At this stage, in the absence of significant changes in reservations in view of the first book, we prefer to adopt a wait, and especially if we take into account the weak position of the Spanish market, "said the group managing director, Gabriel Escarrer.
Bank credit, it is virtually at a standstill. The financial sector, captured by a vast movement of consolidation and mergers, has instructed the government to strengthen its financial strength by injecting 50 billion euros in its balance sheets.
"I do not expect any credit growth this year: it will not accelerate as the economy slows," said a senior industry.
This drying up of lending in Spain affects both large, established companies that families bold enough to ask for a mortgage.
"We are one of the strongest Spanish companies but banks simply will not lend," says an executive from a leading company, who requested anonymity.
His group nevertheless manages to borrow in the bond markets, which are obviously inaccessible to smaller businesses.
Some economists believe the situation in Spain is unfortunately similar to that of Japan in the 1990s. At the time, the shift to austerity operated by Tokyo in 1997 while the private sector was working to pay off debt had resulted in five quarters of contraction Japanese GDP and a soaring budget deficit.
"The recession will last much longer if the government continues to insist on fiscal consolidation at a time when the Spanish private sector debt reduction," said Richard Koo, Nomura Research Economist Institute in Tokyo.
"It took ten years in Japan to recover from this error policy. I would hate to see Spain follow the same path."