Deficit of state budget to 24.2 billion euros in February

6th April

The budget deficit of the French state stood at 24.2 billion euros in February against 28 billion a year earlier, according to data released Friday by the Budget Ministry.

Expenses (general budget and levies on revenue) reached 63.6 billion in February against 57 billion a year earlier.

Revenues (net of refunds and rebates) totaled 45.4 billion euros against 40.2 billion a year earlier. 

"The positive trend (from February 2011-Ed) is mainly in respect of expenses, for a faster pace of expenditure recognition, and respect revenues, for the record, in January 2012, an exceptional product for the allocation of authorizations to use radio frequencies, "the ministry said in a statement.

"The net tax revenues come up from one year to another," he says. "This positive development is consistent with the forecasts used in the last supplementary budget."

As for spending, their progress "is consistent with the prediction of the supplementary budget for 2012".

The government deficit is the main component of the public deficit, which also includes financial statements and those of local communities.

In 2011, the deficit has been 5.2% according to the first estimate published by INSEE.

France has committed to reducing the public deficit to 4.5% of GDP in late 2012 to return in 2013 to the EU limit of 3%. The government recently revised its 4.4% target for this year.

The Socialist candidate for president, Francois Hollande, currently leading in the polls, has also committed to reducing the deficit to 3% in 2013, after s 4.5% in late 2012. He plans to balance the public accounts in 2017.

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COR-The Spanish economy threatened a "lost decade"

28th March

Low-fat diet for households and businesses, slashing the state budget and credit crunch could lead bank for Spain by years of economic stagnation, and force her to ask, such as Greece, an international aid.

Forced by the European Union to reduce the deficit and meet the new budget rules, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy promised that the draft budget presented Friday would be "very, very austere." 

While the Spanish economy is already on the verge of its second recession in three years, that unemployment exceeds 22% and that the costs of bonds go up, Some economists predict the country a "lost decade" like the one Japan experienced in the 1990s and which he never fully recovered.

Others, including the Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, consider that Spain could result in the entire euro area a new crisis.

"We signed a suicide pact, Europe, accepting that everyone could save," said Luis Garicano, an economist at the London School of Economics and a researcher in the circle reflection Spanish FEDEA. "Europe must admit that this creates a downward spiral that does a disservice to anyone."

The Spanish economy, characterized by a debt of nearly 70% of gross domestic product (GDP) and private debt among the highest in the euro area , represents more than twice those of Ireland, Portugal and Greece combined, which excludes its partners leaves the sink.

DRYING OF CREDIT

In financial markets, the financing costs of the Spanish debt have certainly receded after last year reached their highest levels for 14 years, but the recent renewed concern weeks resulted in a rise in yield spreads between Spanish and German bonds. 

"There is a risk that Spain forced eventually to seek financial assistance in order to borrow at reasonable interest rates," said Ben May at Capital Economics.

The draft government budget Rajoy will include at least 35 billion euros in savings and new revenues, including an increase in certain taxes and wage cuts and staffing in the Public .

And Budget 2013 promises to be just as rigorous.

Problem: Spanish domestic demand, a key driver of growth in the boom years before the crisis, is now more to go.

The country's GDP expected to contract 1.7% this year. In turn, property prices fell 11.2% in the fourth quarter of last year and some are predicting 30% price decline further. The construction sector, flourishing during the housing boom, collapsed after 2008, which resulted in several million additional unemployed.

The unemployment rate in Spain is thus twice the average for all EU and approach 50% among youth. The kingdom also displays the rate of development of the highest poverty in Europe.

POLICY DANGEROUS TURN

The situation of enterprises is not much better and even the most promising sectors are cutting their workforces, like tourism (11% of GDP), where the group Sol Melia had sell assets in late 2011 to reduce its debt, despite the increased number of visitors favored by the Arab spring.

"At this stage, in the absence of significant changes in reservations in view of the first book, we prefer to adopt a wait, and especially if we take into account the weak position of the Spanish market, "said the group managing director, Gabriel Escarrer.

Bank credit, it is virtually at a standstill. The financial sector, captured by a vast movement of consolidation and mergers, has instructed the government to strengthen its financial strength by injecting 50 billion euros in its balance sheets.

"I do not expect any credit growth this year: it will not accelerate as the economy slows," said a senior industry.

This drying up of lending in Spain affects both large, established companies that families bold enough to ask for a mortgage.

"We are one of the strongest Spanish companies but banks simply will not lend," says an executive from a leading company, who requested anonymity. 

His group nevertheless manages to borrow in the bond markets, which are obviously inaccessible to smaller businesses.

Some economists believe the situation in Spain is unfortunately similar to that of Japan in the 1990s. At the time, the shift to austerity operated by Tokyo in 1997 while the private sector was working to pay off debt had resulted in five quarters of contraction Japanese GDP and a soaring budget deficit.

"The recession will last much longer if the government continues to insist on fiscal consolidation at a time when the Spanish private sector debt reduction," said Richard Koo, Nomura Research Economist Institute in Tokyo.

"It took ten years in Japan to recover from this error policy. I would hate to see Spain follow the same path."

Values ​​to follow Wednesday (mid-session)

14th March

List of values ​​to follow on Wednesday at the Paris Bourse, where the CAC 40 is 0.7% to 3574.70 points at 12:55, at its highest since meeting on March 2, in a market supported by the improving economic outlook in the United States and an overall positive result of stress tests undergone by U.S. banks.

* PSA earns 5.4% more increase in the CAC 40, on purchases cheaply and redemptions of short positions. The total European car takes 2.2% and 2.8% RENAULT.

According to La Lettre VN Auto K7, orders for new cars in France fell by only 7% in February.

* The FINANCIAL are again the first to enjoy the return of risk appetite. AXA gained 4.3%, 3.6% BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale 3.4% 2.7%. Outside CAC 40, Natixis is 5.5%, the second largest increase in PSA after SBF 120, and CNP ASSURANCES earns 3.5%.

* BIOMÉRIEUX however lost 5.5%, largest drop in the SBF 120, severely punished after revising down its organic growth target in 2012 and abandoned ambitions to provide long term.

* ARKEMA down 4.8%, while Groupe Bruxelles Lambert has sold 6.2 million shares of the chemicals group, is 10.01% stake. GBL sold its share at a price of 69.90 euros / share, it was learned on the market.

* EURO DISNEY (+6.4%) expects to exceed this year's attendance record in 2011 (15.7 million tourists) despite the difficult economic environment in Europe, de clare its CEO Philippe Gas in an interview with Le Figaro.

Hedge funds are resisting on Greek debt

7th March

Hedge funds refused to make the Greek debt they hold to the exchange transaction, threatening to ask the courts if the offer does not improve liorée.

These funds seek to meet a minority sufficient to block the process, the risk of derailing the debt swap and cornered Greece to bankruptcy.

Greek debt holders should tender their shares before Thursday at 20:00 GMT. In the opinion of Greek officials, the operation is moving in the right direction, even though banks and as well as European politicians have expressed their uncertainties.

"I was warned that many investors think carefully about the options available to them, including that of the judicial path," said Steven Friel Brown Rudnick, a firm which advises investors on possible legal strategies in Greece.

Hedge funds prefer debt securities that are not of Greek law, harder eligible for restricted devices developed by Athens.

McClutchen Bingham, another law firm, said Monday that he advised the holders of 650 million Swiss francs of Greek debt. Investors holding significant amounts of Greek debt came together to find "all the answers to their concerns and protect the rights of holders," according to the firm.

Hedge funds hold more than a quarter of Greece's debt denominated in Swiss francs and 450 million euros of bonds maturing and it might be enough to prevent the Greek government to impose on private creditors to agree to take their losses.

They hope that the government prefers to reach a settlement before May instead of defaulting despite warnings from the Greek politicians who warned that n ' there would be no new offer. 

Failing agreement, the funds could go on the judicial front, even then appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, alleging violations of property law.

This option could however be lengthy and costly for investors.

Result and prospect of lower than expected sales for Dell

22nd February

Dell on Tuesday announced a profit below expectations on account of its fiscal fourth quarter and forecast sales below Wall Street forecasts for the current quarter This has reduced the action in the off-market transactions.

The world number three personal computers is expected to drop 7% of its revenue this quarter compared to the previous. Revenues for the fourth quarter being raised to $ 16 billion, this amounts to provide a revenue of $ 14.9 billion for the first quarter, while Wall Street expects about 15.2 billion.

The fourth quarter result also showed lower than expected despite healthy sales to businesses (5% yoy, to $ 4.9 billion).

But sales to the public sector showed signs of weakness (-1% to 3.9 billion). The consumer sales were down 2%.

"With a turnover of 65 billion dollars, it takes time to move the needle toward the most relevant sources of income of a strategic perspective. And for now, we do sees no sign of progress, "says the analyst of ISI Group, Brian Marshall. "It will take time for Dell to right the ship."

PC makers are struggling with falling demand, as consumers tend to turn increasingly to mobile devices like the Apple iPad, while floods in Thailand restrict the supply of some components.

Excluding items, Dell reported earnings of 51 cents per share in the fourth quarter while the market was expecting 52 cents.

Gross margin for the quarter was 21.1%, against 20% a year ago.

VAT and social Tobin menu Cabinet

8th February

Social VAT and tax on financial transactions were presented to the Cabinet Wednesday, the last step before a parliamentary debate. The standard VAT rate will increase on 1 October from 19.6% to 21.2% to compensate for 13 billion euros of lower employer costs, announced Sunday, January 29 Nicolas Sarkozy

The proposed VAT and social tax on financial transactions tax of construction sites last five years, were presented Wednesday by the Cabinet before a parliamentary debate and a deferred entry into force of several months.

The draft supplementary budget for 2012 will now be discussed from Monday to the National Assembly for a final parliamentary adoption scheduled for late February or early March at the latest. The symbolic measure of this supplementary budget is called social VAT, a name rejected by the government.  

VAT is to alleviate social, from 1 October, employers' costs to fund family policy, for 13.2 billion euros in a full year ($ 3.6 billion in 2012). These family contributions paid by employers are suppressed for salaries between 1.6 and 2.1 times the minimum wage, and relaxed, on a sliding scale, between 2.1 and 2.4 times the minimum wage. Wages to below 1.6 times the minimum wage already benefiting from such reductions in charges. In all, according to Bercy, 14 million employees are affected by the measure.

To offset the cost of this measure whose objective is to lower labor costs and thus increase the competitiveness of French industry, the government intends to increase by 19.6% to 21.2% the normal rate of VAT, also on 1 October. This measure will yield € 10.6 billion per year in stride.  

Finally, the general social contribution (CSG) on capital income is increased by two points, from 8.2% to 10.2%. This includes income from assets as of 1 January and investment products as of July 1. This measure will report full-year 2.6 billion euros needed to complete the reform so that it is neutral for public finances.

Moreover, the supplementary budget provides for the creation, effective August 1, a tax on financial transactions in France. Transactions in shares of companies whose market capitalization exceeds one billion euros and is headquartered in France will be taxed at 0.1%.

Unibail is up 4% of its 2012 recurring EPS

1st February

Unibail-Rodamco said Wednesday night anticipating a growth in recurring earnings per share by about 4% this year after suffering a weaker than expected decline in 2011 in the context of consumption, however, difficult and unstable. Europe's leading commercial real estate has also maintained its target of annual growth in recurring earnings per share of between 5 and 7% on average over the period 2013-2015. "For 2012, the group remains confident about the growth in rents. This perspective is based on strong fundamentals: a low vacancy rates, as limited effort, rents rise and cost of debt content "said in a statement Unibail-Rodamco. The company explains that caution is when the impact of the crisis in the euro area consumption and the situation of teachers, however, can not be ignored. "The net assets has increased, thanks to growth in rents, which is a very positive point. ANR spring with a premium of 15% over the share price, which shows the value remains price, "said Thomas Aubert, the French manager at AM. Before the publication of these results, Unibail-Rodamco has indeed ended with a gain of 2.72% to 150.80 euros, compared to its net asset value (NAV) ERPA triple net stood at 130.70 euros at end-December (4.9% compared to end 2010). Analysts consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S awaited a NAV 131.18 euros. PRIME on sales net rents stand at 1.262 billion euros in 2011 against 1.257 billion a year earlier. Shopping centers on net rents reached 984.1 million euros last year, up 2.4% year on year. At the end of December, the recurring earnings per share of the group came out down 2.6% to 9.03 euros, 8.89 euros against expected by analysts. When publishing its interim results in July, the group reiterated its outlook for a decline in recurring profit for 2011 of between 3% and 5%, given the impacts the exceptional payout in October 2010 and its program of asset sales. Unibail will propose to the General Meeting the payment of a dividend of eight per share in cash, representing a distribution of 89% of its recurring earnings per share as the market expected an average 8.08 euros. Despite the difficult financial markets in 2011, the group rated "A" by rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, has raised a total of 3.1 billion euros of new financing , medium and long term, in the form of bank loans and bond issues. "It is also interesting to note that even on desks, Unibail managed to achieve growth while all sales were made at a premium," said Thomas Aubert, the net rents of offices increased by 4.2% on a constant basis. Unibail-Rodamco, the market capitalization of 13.8 billion euros, sold 1.084 million euros of non-core business assets and 242 million euros of assets from offices in 2011, with an average premium of 7.8% over the last values ​​of external expertise. The portfolio of development projects of the group, who will deliver this year including the mall Lyon Confluence, the end of 2011 amounted to 6.9 billion euros, 1.5 billion already spent. The market value of the portfolio of Unibail-Rodamco amounted to 25.9 billion euros late last year, up from 1.4 billion end of 2010.

26th November

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended Friday in a piecemeal, according to a new low of two and a half years in session for the Nikkei, while France and Germany have not reached the day before to convince investors of the imminence of a consensus on the answer to the debt crisis.

The Nikkei lost 0.06% (-5.17 points) at 8,160.01 points, while the Topix, broader took 0.52 points (+0.07%) to 706.60 points.

For the week, the two indexes have lost respectively 2.6% and 1.9%.

At the conclusion of a tripartite meeting in Strasbourg between the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, the French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the latter reiterated his opposition to any change in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB ) and the introduction of Eurobonds.

"Some investors bought oversold values ​​in the afternoon (Japan), but concerns about the situation in Europe remains" Judge Kenichi Hirano, Tachibana Securities.

21st November

The rating agency Moody's warned Monday about the risks posed by the rise in yields on French government bonds on the rating of sovereign debt of France in a context of uncertainty on growth.

"The sustained high funding costs amplify the fiscal challenges facing the French government in a context of deteriorating growth prospects, with negative consequences on credit", written Kockerbeck Alexander, an analyst at the agency.

Moody's announced in mid-October that it would monitor and assess the stability of the perspective of the French Aaa rating within three months.

17th November

Fever market does not seem to stop. So many voices calling for the ECB buys massive amounts of government securities in difficulty to break the panic and speculation. But is this really the solution? ECB

In the state of current market panic, the ECB is more than ever figure of last bastion of the euro area. Provided, however, she agreed to play this role … Italian interest rates still evolving around 7% Thursday, an unsustainable level on the scale of a few months. And fears of contagion from France have propelled the difference in interest rates between Germany and France to a new record (204 basis points difference, France into debt at a cost of more than two times higher).Sign that it is a disruption of markets, interest rates of other states in the euro area AAA rated – such as Finland or the virtuous Netherlands – are also affected.

In this context, increasing the pressure on the European Central Bank in order to redeem government bonds heavily attacked. The Nobel Prize in Economics Paul Krugman recently called for greater involvement of the ECB. "It should send a clear message and say" we buy as many (sovereign debt) than necessary. "In France, many economists on the left are also campaigning on this issue. Even in Germany, there are voices in this sense Like Peter Bofinger, an economist and adviser to the German government. "It's not attractive … But we must clearly realize that it's an emergency.