National, World, Business News

The output growth of French chemistry to slow to 1.8% by volume in 2012 after the 5.9% achieved in 2011, due to the economic downturn and rising cost of raw materials and energy, told Reuters the president of the Union of Industries (UIC), Olivier Homolle.

The annual report of the UIC, released Tuesday, reveals that the performance of France were better than that of the entire European Union, in which the growth of the n 'was only 1.1% last year and should not exceed 1.5% in 2012.

Last November, the UIC had raised its growth forecast to 4.5% in 2011.

In total, the turnover of the industry grew 13% last year to 86.7 billion euros. 

"We see 2012 on a relatively positive but with a number of uncertainties because the world is moving at full speed," said Olivier Homolle in an interview with Reuters, while noting that the level of growth 1.8% expected this year is "very respectable".

He noted that the worsening economic climate in Europe and the slowdown in the entire industry in France had gradually affected the chemical sector, whose stocks have become cumbersome from the second quarter. 

GOOD CONDUCT OF PERFUME AND COSMETICS

The good news, Olivier Homolle continued, "is that there is no reason that Asia does not continue to draw quite significantly the global economy and that since beginning of the year, the U.S. showed signs of significant growth that have a good impact on the overall economy. "

With 5.9% growth in 2011, the production of the French chemical industry came back last year in volume to levels before the financial crisis, it had been drop 1.1% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009, its worst decline in 20 years.

Last year it was mainly driven by the chemistry for the manufacture of cosmetics, perfumes, and to a lesser extent, cleaning products. 

For export, the demand of foreign markets, especially emerging, was supported in 2011, resulting in increased sales by 9.8% in value. But due to a high level of imports (12.4%), the balance of the sector fell to 4.4 billion euros, against 5.0 billion in 2010. …….

In 2012, export growth should return close to the average level of 2% recorded between 1990 and 2011. European growth is seen at 1.5%.

While oil prices seem set to continue the current high levels, above 120 dollars a barrel for Brent, UIC has urged the French government has become more open to development shale gas.

"The fact that the debate be closed is very worrying," said Olivier Homolle, who is also director of the French division of German group BASF.

"The goal is first to be as competitive as possible. Should at least permit the debate to take place, that we can get an education," said ; Olivier Homolle.

In 2011, advertising revenues have stagnated with growth of 0.1%, according to an annual study Irep France pub. But all media are not housed in the same boat.

The advertising market has avoided the crisis in 2011, despite uncertainties about the European economy. Communication costs of advertisers rose 1.9% last year to 31.4 billion euros, according to the study Irep France Pub, the only net to provide data, thus reflecting the reality of the sector. But it is above the "non-media" that has led this growth: namely, direct marketing, exhibitions and fairs, sponsorship and public relations.

The media, themselves, have received only a much weaker performance of their revenues from 0.1% to 10.7 billion euros. "We can speak of a stabilization, which occurs after one year in 2010 up 3.9% and a historic collapse in 2009, which was the largest decline in the market since we measure the" summed Philippe Legendre , Managing Director of the Irep.

Winners of 2011 …

Like the Oscars, the winner is … film with revenue up 16.5%, to 105 million euros. "This is a segment that works well correlated with total attendance and films that perform. It has been three years since the film is growing, it was the same in 2009, is an" old " publicitairement media that works well, according to Mr. Legendre

. Less surprisingly, Internet display advertising (banners and inserts) always exhibits a strong momentum with a 14% jump in advertising revenue, to 616 million euros. And yet this figure does not include it sponsored links. Mobile advertising jumped 37% even, but the volume is still very limited: 37 million euros last year.

In the area of ​​print, Free news saw its advertising revenue increase by 5.5% last year to 145 million euros. And the regional daily press manages to snatch up 0.2%, to 937 million euros.

On television, revenue totaled 3.5 billion euros, up 1.6% year on year. Increased primarily due to the strong performance of new channels, which recorded a 18% increase. As for radio, it also increased, by 0.6%, to 748 million euros. But this good result is obtained only by a jump of 4.4% of local advertising. National advertising was down 0.4%.

… And losers

Taken as a whole, the press continues to fall. In total, 3.49 billion in advertising revenue, down 3.2% yoy (against -1.6% in 2010). Those of the national dailies fell 3.7% as magazines (- 0.7%), and the specialized press (-2.9%).

As for the free press as a whole, it has seen advertising revenues fall by 13.8%. The trend is driven by print ads whose revenue continued to fall by 18.8%.

Finally, on television, the five channels "historical" are declining at 1.8%.

For 2012, experts of this instutit provides market stability, with an increase limited to 0.8%.

BASF being undermined expectations of contraction this year by announcing Friday that its results and its turnover increase this year in favor of a rebound second half.

"We believe the global economy will accelerate in the course of 2012 after a modest start," said Kurt Bock said in a statement, chief executive of the world's leading chemicals with the number business.

There is a risk of the uncertainty surrounding the issue of debt in the U.S. and Europe, while "the positive momentum of the chemical industry will once again mainly in emerging markets" .

The action gained 2% in pre-market.

Analysts anticipate a decline in turnover and operating profit this year. The C.A. was 73.5 billion euros and operating profit of 8.4 billion euros in 2011.

Operating income for the fourth quarter, adjusted for exceptional items, fell 14% to 1.51 billion euros, according to Reuters.

The quarterly revenue it has increased 10% to 18.1 billion euros.

Operating income will be down in the first half but it will be up the next semester, said BASF.

Sign of the optimism of the chemical group, the annual dividend is raised to 2.50 euros per share against 2.20 euros last year and EUR 2.39 predicted by analysts.

"The positive outlook for the global economy and BASF is amazing," said Peter Spengler, an analyst at DZ Bank.

Barack Obama pleaded Monday for important stimulus for growth and for raising taxes on high incomes, at the presentation of his budget proposal for fiscal year 2013, the Republican camp has once strongly criticized.

President of the United States, which will run for a second term in November at the White House, plans to spend $ 350 billion (265 billion euros approximately) to programs creations jobs and 476 billion (360 billion euros) to major works, including on road and rail networks and the construction of schools. 

The budget for fiscal year 2013, which begins on October 1, further provides for allocating funds to increase staffing in the areas of education, police and firefighters, while extending tax breaks designed to boost employment.

Of revenues, Barack Obama proposes to tax the income of millionaires at 30%, main idea of ​​his speech on the state of the Union last month, and expects 4000 bn e ; economies ten years, according to the plan unveiled in September.

There are also plans to set the tax rate on dividends at the highest tax bracket, currently 35% but must be raised to nearly 40% next year. 

"We built this budget around the idea that our country has always given the best of himself when everyone had his account," Obama said during a trip to , Annandale, Virginia. "It challenges the economic policy of 'make do', which has widened the gap between rich and poor Americans."

"As our economy growing again and creating jobs at a faster pace, we must do everything we can to preserve the recovery," he added.

AID HELD IN EGYPT

The proposed budget provides the outgoing president an opportunity to present his program and to present his Republican opponents as candidates of the rich. The conservative movement denounced for his reckless spending and accuses him of wanting to increase taxation.

"The Obama budget is an insult to American taxpayers," ruled Mitt Romney, a favorite of the race for Republican nomination for the presidential election of November 6.

"This project is not at all a financing law is a platform of campaign," said his side Mitch McConnell, Republican minority leader in the Senate. "It is bad for job creation, bad for retirees and it will worsen the economic situation," he continued.

The draft budget forecasts a deficit of 901 billion dollars against 1,330 billion this year. This sum, higher than the estimates made in September by the White House, represents 5.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected in 2013, against 8.5% in 2012.

Obama pledged in 2009 to halve the budget deficit by 2013. But the White House argued that the magnitude of the recession that occurred after his arrival to the presidency dictated emergency measures and believes that it was more important to pre server growth than imposing austerity measures.

Regarding overseas, Obama proposes that the U.S. military assistance grant of $ 1.3 billion to Egypt, a level equivalent to that of previous years, despite ; tensions generated by the lawsuits against U.S. NGOs in Egypt. Some MPs had wanted the suspension of financial assistance to Cairo if the record of NGOs was not set.

Obama also proposes to release $ 800 million economic aid for countries in the "Arab spring" in the Middle East and North Africa, where authoritarian regimes have been overthrown ; s last year. The text does not stipulate how much money will be allocated to each country.

ECB expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its policy meeting Thursday but could pave the way for a decline in March, while the Eurozone recession is threatened by the fallout from the debt crisis and the situation in Greece.

If no agreement is reached by Thursday on the austerity program needed to allow the raising of the Greek State, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will probably be attacked questions about the possibility that the institution waives its potential profits on Greek bonds it holds.

And if an agreement is reached by then, it must explain its terms, its consequences and the precedent thus created. 

Financial markets will also be on the lookout for clues that the ECB expects its second refinancing operation three years, scheduled for 29 February.

The first such operation in late December, allowed him to inject 489 billion euros into the financial system and to push at least temporarily the pressure on the banks of the euro area.

The latest Reuters poll forecast of professional money markets, the ECB could allocate additional 400 billion to banks at the end of the month.

Regarding rates, the threat of increasing net of a relapse into recession in the euro area has increased the likelihood of an easing in March, especially as inflationary pressures have receded ;. 

THE SITUATION Degrades

The ECB has never cut its refinancing rate, the main instrument of monetary policy, under 1% and some members of the Governing Council are reluctant to make it fall below this threshold.

In March, the new forecasts for growth and inflation teams of the central bank could give additional reasons to take the plunge.

"The March forecast will be worse than December," predicts Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank. "It can be estimated at 60% probability of a rate cut in March because their growth forecast is too high."

In December, the ECB economists predicted further growth of around 0.3% in the euro area this year.

For Padhraic Garvey, head of rates strategy at ING, the ECB can afford to wait to learn more about the changing conditions before changing its rates.

"The next fall does not need to take place in March. We think it will take place during the first half," he says, adding that the decline in Euribor interbank rates is at least as important as rates of the ECB.

"The most important is that Euribor rates are trending down. The evolution of the Euribor for a month is equivalent to an actual reduction in rates, "he says

. The three-month EURIBOR , regarded as the main barometer of the market for interbank loans, dropped 26 basis points since January 1, to return as 1.1%, the lowest in 11 months … INFLATION RISK It

……

reflux reflects the efficiency of the operation refinancing to three years of the ECB, which has become the main weapon to combat the crisis of the ECB since its purchases of government bonds are now running in slow motion

…… Mario Draghi said … expect the transaction to three years late creating demand "significant". And some bankers expect to see the ECB banks allocate an amount higher than EUR 400 billion provided for traders polled by Reuters.

Christian Schulz estimates that more than 1000 billion injection on Feb. 29 could create inflationary pressures.

"The ECB should react very vigorously, by raising rates," he adds.

On the Greek chapter, the ECB is under pressure from certain creditors of Athens who wish to see transferred to the Hellenic State will generate profits that the debt Greek it has acquired since the beginning of the crisis.

According to sources from the ECB, it spent 38 billion euros to acquire these bonds, 12 billion less than their face value. 

Retroceding in capital gains, the ECB would contribute to the restructuring of the Greek debt finance directly without a state, which prohibit its statutes.

To do this, it could sell the shares at the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) at their purchase price, on condition of surrendering the EFSF away in Athens.

"I do not think the ECB will try to keep its obligations at any price," said Christian Schulz. "I think it would be quite happy to get rid of."

The European Investment Bank (EIB) could provide up to 74 billion euros in loans to banks in two years in Europe if its own capital was strengthened, including with money provided by its shareholders, according to a document prepared for the finance ministers of the Union.

Prepared for the Council of Finance Ministers of the EU, which meets Tuesday, the report details the means that could be implemented if the credit crunch.

"The risk reduction of leverage by the banks is not negligible and it is important to maintain and even increase of EIB lending to the real economy through the banks," said Bank in this document, dated November 3.

Exxon Mobil reported Thursday a 41% jump in earnings in the third quarter, slightly more than expected by Wall Street, thanks to higher oil prices and improved refining margins.

Several major oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell and Norway's Statoil, have reported in recent days of strong quarterly results due to higher oil prices.

The futures contract on crude oil traded in New York has averaged $ 90 per barrel in the quarter, up 18% over the same period in 2010, while Brent crude oil jumped 48% .

An hour after the opening of Wall Street, Exxon earned the title 0.2% to 81.17 dollars, underperforming the S & P of the energy gained 2.34%.

Exxon is investing heavily in the exploitation of shale gas, particularly in North America.

The benefit of exploration activity and production of Exxon jumped 54%, the refining of 36%. The group said that better refining margins helped boost the profit of one billion dollars.

The U.S. economy has created far more jobs than expected in September and the new posts of previous months have been revised upwards, according to official statistics released Friday that could mitigate fears of a return to recession.

Last month, 103,000 non-farm jobs were created, according to the Labor Department, while economists on average expected 60,000 creations.

The unemployment rate was unchanged from a month to month to 9.1%, in line with analysts' expectations.

The right numbers in September are based in part on the reintroduction of 45,000 employees of Verizon in the number of jobs created, they were not in August because of a strike.By excluding these employees, 58,000 new jobs were created.

Statistics disappointing August, which reported zero job creation, for its part has been revised to bring out 57,000 new jobs. That of July was also revised upward to 127,000 against 85,000 previously.

Overall, the private sector has created 137,000 jobs, 100,000 against and 42,000 expected in August. The public sector has eliminated 34,000 jobs to him.

RELIEF

These employment figures are one more sign that the U.S. economy could avoid falling into recession despite a sluggish summer.Last week, the growth of U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter was revised up to 1.3% against 1.0% in the first estimate.

Recent indicators of the manufacturing sector, business spending and auto sales leave now think the economy is doing better than expected third quarter.

Hourly wages have also increased by 4 cents in September after falling all the previous month.They then recorded their first decline since October 2009, pushing the savings to its lowest level for over a year and a half.

"The increase in job creation and revisions of the statistics is comforting and exciting to the market," said John Kilduff, partner of Capital hedge fund in New York Again.

"But it seems premature to use these numbers to say, regarding the economy in general, we are out of the woods," he tempers.

In September, the U.S. economy has eliminated 13,000 manufacturing jobs, after having destroyed in August 4000.

Some economists fear that the debt crisis will derail the U.S. recovery, not a fear expressed Thursday by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

"We're still not at a job that can bring down the unemployment rate, which remains a key concern important to the economy," warns Ellen Zentner, economist at Nomura Securities in New York.

The economy must grow by at least 2.5% per year and create jobs 150.00 per month to prevent the unemployment rate to rise.

The ruling coalition in Slovakia will have to overhaul the government or call early elections if it does not find a majority in parliament to ratify the reform of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), said Sunday the main opposition party.

The country, with only 5 million inhabitants, could hinder the ratification process of strengthening the powers of the Fund reform validated so far by 14 of the 17 countries in the euro area.

The center-right coalition of Prime Minister Iveta Radicova hard to achieve a parliamentary majority on this vote, which is expected by October 14, since one of the coalition parties, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) is refuses to support.

"Either the government approves the EFSF and the coalition will do well by itself, or the ruling coalition is not able to make such a decision and will have to rely on the help of the opposition, but with consequences on the functioning of the ruling coalition, "said Robert Fico, Smer party leader, during a televised debate.

The Smer, which has nearly 40% approval rating in the polls, supports the reform of EFSF but refuses to reach out to the coalition.Robert Fico said that it would overhaul the government or call new elections if it failed to unite.

"We are ready to support the EFSF, but if we do, that means no more ruling coalition in Slovakia," said the former prime minister Iveta Radicova predecessor as head of government.

Nokia, faced with declining sales and profits, announced Thursday the elimination of 3,500 positions, including the upcoming closure of its plant in Cluj, Romania.

The closure of the Cluj result in the layoff of 2,200 persons.Nokia also plans to eliminate 1,300 positions in its other division Rental & Commerce, which includes the world leader in digital mapping Navteq.

These staff reductions are in addition to a program unveiled by the group in April to achieve 1 billion euros in savings, and including the removal of 4,000 jobs.

The world's largest maker of mobile phones by volume is facing a decline in sales and earnings after announcing in February that now employ the operating system from Microsoft for its smartphones.The first of them well equipped arrive on the market later this year.

The action Nokia has lost half its value since February, investors feared that the group would lose much market share until the launch of its new smartphones and no longer able to fully regain thereafter.

Around 9:10 GMT, the action to Nokia gained 0.96% 4.22 euros, while the European sector index electronics progressed from 0.17%.

Nokia also announced it would inject with Siemens € 500 million in their joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks, headed by Jesper Ovesen would succeed Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, former CEO of Nokia.