Real Estate: prices fall for the first time in Paris

30th March

The price per m2 of existing homes totaled at the end of January 8340 euros on average, 30 euros less than in October 2011. Prices in the Ile-de-France, for the same period were down 0.6%. This trend is not sustainable. Paris real estate. St. Pierre Semard, in the ninth.

Prices of existing homes fell slightly in Paris, in 8340 euros/m2 average for the period between November 2011 and January 2012 instead of 8370 euros/m2 previously announced Thursday night the Chamber of Notaries of Paris-Ile de France. The downward trend in prices began in late last year, is confirmed, indicate notaries in a statement.  

Moreover, the promise of sale entered recently, which presage the final price trends, highlight the value of apartments in the capital between 8100 and 8200 averaged euros/m2 end of May, confirming a trend slightly downward (-2 to -3.2%), after a sharp surge in prices which had led to an annual increase of 21.3% in late August 2011.

For the entire Ile-de-France, house prices in Ile-de-France, for the same period were down 0.6%. The largest decrease is observed in Seine-Saint-Denis (1.4%), while a decline of 0.3% in Paris proper.

The decrease in the number of transactions recorded for several months, was temporarily halted because of the reform leading to higher taxation of capital gains on property that, with effect from 1 February 2012, caused an influx of sales. Thus, from November 2011 to January 2012, 43,000 existing homes were sold, an increase of 6% over the same period 12 months earlier, and even 32% in central Paris.

After the records set last year, the Paris notaries had anticipated the end of February the prospect of a market downturn of the former in 2012 on the entire region, suggesting a decrease of 5 to 10% less a "new rebound of the financial crisis". But this break "will be sustainable only if new construction is accelerating sustainable in Ile-de-France for several years," had they warned. In the provinces, prices are expected to experience the same slope, according to forecasts by the INSEE.

Cash lenders will loan anything from a couple of hundred dollars to around $1500, which generally must be paid back in full, along with the interest, within two to four weeks.

Europe gives the time in Portugal to reform, Rehn said

15th March

Europe is ready to support Portugal in the implementation of economic reforms necessary for the country, said Thursday Olli Rehn, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs .

"To me, the solidarity of its European partners in Portugal gives the time required for the implementation of reforms," ​​he told the Portuguese parliament after he has e ; tee Lisbon asked if he needed a second aid plan after the first, 78 billion euros, decided last year.

Olli Rehn that he was not constructive to discuss the possibility of a second plane for Portugal, adding that the country should focus on its program of fiscal consolidation and re ; structural forms. 

Some economists believe that Portugal, like Greece, will need a second international aid plan.

Wednesday, Olli Rehn had felt that the situation in Portugal was not comparable to that of Greece.

He also said that Portugal was on track to achieve the goals set by the bailout of 78 billion euros.

Borloo at Veolia: political uproar and denials cascade

21st February

The rumor of an ouster of CEO of Veolia Environnement in favor of Mr. Frérot Borloo, after a maneuver made by the boss of EDF Proglio, close to Nicolas Sarkozy, sparked a lively debate Monday politics. The former minister and the president strongly deny. The Elysée to maneuver to place Borloo Veolia? The accusation is "absurd", according to the Sarkozy camp.

"The arrangements between friends of Fouquet's''," a president of the combined business and "" … These are some qualifications of the various political parties to protest a possible arrival of Borloo to head Veolia. Mentioned by several newspapers, the hypothesis has fueled outrage among rival Nicolas Sarkozy denouncing his intervention in the appointment. According to Le Monde, Libération and Les Echos, the operation was led by Henri Proglio, the boss of EDF remained a director of Veolia. It would "head of Antoine Frérot", his successor, and would be heard "at the beginning of last week" on its replacement by Borloo, former Minister of Ecology.

Which formally denied: "If, for many months, several national and international groups have contacted me in particular so that I bring my analysis informally on their evolution and their business – this was the case recently for Veolia, neither more nor less-everything else is just speculation, manipulation, or even a desire to harm ". The former number two in the government then said: "As I always said, my schedule today is exclusively political. I have confirmed that I have not decided to end my political career and remains focused on building a future for France. "

For its part, Proglio said that Veolia deserved better than "those waves of political rumors". Antoine Frérot, he wrote an internal letter to employees of the group, citing a "company of destabilization".

Source close to the council, seven directors Proglio support the project, seven against and three are still undecided, that seeks to convince Alain Minc, another close to Nicolas Sarkozy. Officially, everyone is silent. In its presidential campaign, all the opposition – left, center and FN together – is leapt to denounce a "conflict of interests" and "arrangements between friends of Fouquet's", the Sarkozy camp trying to extinguish the Fire minimizing simple "press rumors".

Sarkozy: "It's absurd"

"Republic How are we?", Has protested Monday Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate for favorite presidential polls, Nicolas Sarkozy in lampooning "the candidate of confusion, arrangements". Same story for Europe Ecology Party the Greens (EELV). This is a "farce", denounced the environmentalist Eva Joly, citing a "conflict of interests rarely seen" and "contempt of the Republic". "Before leaving, Sarkozy puts his friends," added the National Front, while the modem call to "turn the page on these practices." "It is abnormal that the policy interferes in the affairs of a private group like Veolia. What credit do we give to the group to negotiate with local authorities?" Railed Deroubaix Hervé, Steward CFDT.

For his part, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, speaking as Minister of Ecology, denied "formally" any government involvement in the possible appointment of Jean-Louis Borloo. "Veolia is a company under private law, the government does not meddle in any way the choices made by its directors. It does not get involved now and do not mingle in it", she said to the AFP. According to Le Parisien, Proglio seek to ensure his rear in case of arrival of the Left to power in May. Nicolas Sarkozy has swept the controversy with the back of the hand. the Head of State called on Monday BFMTV "absurd" the hypothesis of an intervention by the Elysée. "The Elysee is behind a possible appointment" of Borloo to Veolia, the question does one out of his campaign headquarters, in the fifteenth district. "It's absurd," he replied.

The ECB could pave the way for a rate cut in March

6th February

ECB expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its policy meeting Thursday but could pave the way for a decline in March, while the Eurozone recession is threatened by the fallout from the debt crisis and the situation in Greece.

If no agreement is reached by Thursday on the austerity program needed to allow the raising of the Greek State, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will probably be attacked questions about the possibility that the institution waives its potential profits on Greek bonds it holds.

And if an agreement is reached by then, it must explain its terms, its consequences and the precedent thus created. 

Financial markets will also be on the lookout for clues that the ECB expects its second refinancing operation three years, scheduled for 29 February.

The first such operation in late December, allowed him to inject 489 billion euros into the financial system and to push at least temporarily the pressure on the banks of the euro area.

The latest Reuters poll forecast of professional money markets, the ECB could allocate additional 400 billion to banks at the end of the month.

Regarding rates, the threat of increasing net of a relapse into recession in the euro area has increased the likelihood of an easing in March, especially as inflationary pressures have receded ;. 

THE SITUATION Degrades

The ECB has never cut its refinancing rate, the main instrument of monetary policy, under 1% and some members of the Governing Council are reluctant to make it fall below this threshold.

In March, the new forecasts for growth and inflation teams of the central bank could give additional reasons to take the plunge.

"The March forecast will be worse than December," predicts Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank. "It can be estimated at 60% probability of a rate cut in March because their growth forecast is too high."

In December, the ECB economists predicted further growth of around 0.3% in the euro area this year.

For Padhraic Garvey, head of rates strategy at ING, the ECB can afford to wait to learn more about the changing conditions before changing its rates.

"The next fall does not need to take place in March. We think it will take place during the first half," he says, adding that the decline in Euribor interbank rates is at least as important as rates of the ECB.

"The most important is that Euribor rates are trending down. The evolution of the Euribor for a month is equivalent to an actual reduction in rates, "he says

. The three-month EURIBOR , regarded as the main barometer of the market for interbank loans, dropped 26 basis points since January 1, to return as 1.1%, the lowest in 11 months … INFLATION RISK It

……

reflux reflects the efficiency of the operation refinancing to three years of the ECB, which has become the main weapon to combat the crisis of the ECB since its purchases of government bonds are now running in slow motion

…… Mario Draghi said … expect the transaction to three years late creating demand "significant". And some bankers expect to see the ECB banks allocate an amount higher than EUR 400 billion provided for traders polled by Reuters.

Christian Schulz estimates that more than 1000 billion injection on Feb. 29 could create inflationary pressures.

"The ECB should react very vigorously, by raising rates," he adds.

On the Greek chapter, the ECB is under pressure from certain creditors of Athens who wish to see transferred to the Hellenic State will generate profits that the debt Greek it has acquired since the beginning of the crisis.

According to sources from the ECB, it spent 38 billion euros to acquire these bonds, 12 billion less than their face value. 

Retroceding in capital gains, the ECB would contribute to the restructuring of the Greek debt finance directly without a state, which prohibit its statutes.

To do this, it could sell the shares at the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) at their purchase price, on condition of surrendering the EFSF away in Athens.

"I do not think the ECB will try to keep its obligations at any price," said Christian Schulz. "I think it would be quite happy to get rid of."

5th November

In the shadow of the Greek psychodrama, it was necessary progress on the major issues of international economic cooperation. Review of some successes and many failures G20 Cannes. Nicolas Sarkozy has ended with a G20 Cannes press conference, November 4, 2011. REUTERS / Yves Herman (FRANCE – Tags: POLITICS BUSINESS)

He wanted to make a summit unforgettable symbol of his power. But the setbacks in Europe, and the announcement of the referendum at the last minute Greek – have been abandoned, the chairman of the G20 in Cannes, Nicolas Sarkozy, in great difficulties. In the shadow of European psychodrama, the Head of State has still attempted to advance the cause of international economic cooperation. With mixed success. Balance sheet.

To read the official press release here.

Tobin Tax: A Small Step U.S.

It must have been one of the key topics of the French Presidency.Nicolas Sarkozy had even managed to convince Angela Merkel to go along with this idea of ​​a tax on financial transactions to support the development. But not surprisingly, no consensus could be found, too many countries there are still opposed. The head of state, however, has been commended for supporting Barack Obama on this theme, declaring that France and the United States "had a common analysis to help the world of finance to solving the current crisis. "

Mersen confirms its objectives but has little visibility for 2012

25th October

Mersen, ex-Carbone Lorraine, which confirmed its 2011 objectives, supported by strong solar activity, and Asia, said he was careful, however, for 2012 due to economic climate remains uncertain.

The specialist in graphite solutions and electrical components still expects a double-digit organic growth and operating margin above 12% of its turnover.

"The macroeconomic environment is what it is, that is to say today very uncertain, so there is little visibility (for 2012)," said Thomas Baumgartner, CFO, at a conference phone.

"The growth of Mersen was very strong across all areas (…) And we recorded very high billing in the sun ", he added, however.

The group reported Tuesday sales up 11.1% at constant exchange rates in the third quarter to 207.8 million euros, an increase of 14.1% in the first nine months of year to 627.1 million euros.

"Asia represents over 25% of consolidated turnover of the group, over 37% Europe and North America 32%, so we have a well balanced business," observed the Chief Financial Officer group.

Mersen began several years ago marked a profound change in its output segment of the automobile and its focus on solar, wind and emerging markets.

The stock closed Tuesday up 2.12% to 28.19 euros, giving a market cap of around 559 million euros. Since the beginning of the year, as yields 17.81% after rising by 35% in 2010.

Life insurance: the rationale for a rare decline

24th October

In September, French investors withdrew more money from their life insurance policies than it invested. Net outflows which had been observed only twice since 1997. Explanations.

Life insurance is on track to lose its status as a favorite investment of the French? They have in fact removed in September of 11.5 billion euros of their life insurance policies, for a collection of only 9.7 billion. Is a net outflow of 1.8 billion, according to the French Association of Insurance Companies (FFSA). The event is rare. "Not since the collapse of Lehman Brothers to record outflows over the collection in October and December 2008. Since 1997, and the creation of monthly indicators for this type of investment, there has been, taking into account the month of September 2011, three months of negative balance "ensures Philippe Crevel Secretary General of the circle of investors.Why is this?

The crisis … but not only

"Collapse of awards, signs of recession … The start of the flight of investors is linked to economic and market uncertainty. People do not know what will happen to their money in the long term, or insurance Life is a long-term investment "analysis Philippe Crevel. "The environment encourages individuals to anxiety out of stock or bonds" in Le Figaro said Pierre de Villeneuve, Chairman of the Committee of the FFSA life. But all is not the fault of the crisis. Some even think that its effect is marginal. "There is no effect of panic at all.The returns of life insurance are relatively stable and the people know, it remains very popular "advance Cyrille Chartier Kastler, president of consulting firm Facts & Figures, specializing in insurance.

A significant leak in the richest

He said the decline in collections is due to a growing disenchantment of investors richer for life insurance due to a reform put in place a year ago and a half. "Since then, private management contracts (over 120,000 euros of savings) have their performance limited warranty. The government did not want to be guaranteed a higher return to a type of life insurance rather than another, "he explains. Result, private management contracts, which accounted for 25 of the 120 billion collected by life insurance in 2009, are being "strongly reduced" as the president of Facts & Figures.

Demographic factors

"The aging population is also more and more retirees draw on their life insurance for current expenses, as some households in times of crisis," said Le Figaro Bernard Spitz, President of the FFSA. In addition, many of the contracts seem to arrive today at maturity, making them easy to buy. According to the circle of investors, 64% of the outstanding life insurance has over 8 years and 47% of contracts over 12 years.

Yields less attractive

In the 2000s, life insurance used the net returns of 5.3% on average. Ten years later, in late 2010, this rate is only 3.4%. And for 2011, Facts & Figures anticipates yields between 3 and 3.1%. If it remains very attractive, life insurance suffers from the decline continues, very reassuring for investors."Added to this the fears of an increase in the tax burden of its performance, related to the context of rigor. An increase in taxation would make life much less cost" analysis Philippe Crevel.

Competition for real estate

In the opinion of all experts, real estate appears to be the main competitor of insurance. It represents a safe haven, with high efficiency in the eyes of investors, including easier. "The stone is also good protection against inflation," says Cyrille Chartier Kastler. "In Paris, for example, 54% of transactions are not loans. Buyers are good money somewhere. They drain on the part of their life insurance" advance Philippe Crevel.

Then come the investment banking, including booklets boosted short-term."Banks in search of cash, have directed their clients to the bank books by offering rates comparable to those of life insurance, or even higher. The non-hazardous liquid savings has increased by more than 11 billion euros in the second quarter of 2009, "says the secretary general of the circle of investors.

"No event" or "end of the big time"?

However, the situation of companies and the sustainability of life insurance policies do not appear immediately threatened. When an individual agrees this type of contract, the company invests the money in currency values ​​or bond, they sell at the time of outflow. "The diversification of investments and their management over time in a supervisory narrow sector soundness guarantee" assures Bernard Spitz.

"And then, outflows of 1, 9 billion is a non-event," said Cyrille Chartier Kastler.It is true that in view of 1.367 trillion in assets of life insurance, it still represents a drop of water. Still, the rise of stocks slows over time. From December 2010 to September 2011, the total amount increased by 29 billion euros, against 72 billion over the same period a year earlier. "The great period of growth in life insurance is behind us," concludes Philippe Crevel.

Burberry's quarterly results better than expected

12th October

Burberry has released results for the second quarter of 2011 better than expected, supported by new store openings and strong demand in China.

The British luxury group said it had not yet seen any slowdown in demand despite uncertainty about the evolution of global growth.

The group, which manufactures waterproof and leather for a century and a half, announced Wednesday an increase of 29% of its turnover to 463 million pounds (529 million) for April-June

This performance is close to 30% in the first quarter and higher than the average forecast of 10 analysts polled by Reuters, to 448 million pounds (512 million).

Sales in stores, on a comparable basis, increased 16% in the second quarter, against 15% in the first, led by demand in New York, London, Hong Kong and Dubai.

Sales in China rose 30%, a development in line with the first quarter.

Burberry said it maintained its expansion plans, adding that he was ready to adjust if the signals of a slowdown in demand for luxury goods.

EADS stock market fall, aerospace pressure banks

22nd September

The action EADS is among the largest declines in the CAC 40 index on Thursday morning at the Paris Stock Exchange, while concerns are emerging about a domino effect on aircraft manufacturers difficulties refinancing of French banks in dollars.

In a market that was down 3.93%, weighed down by the performance of particular financial and cyclical stocks, the parent company of Airbus shows a fall of 6.81% to 21.14 euros at 10:45.

"It lowers the title.This is the first strong example of the effects of the crisis of dollar liquidity for European banks on the real economy, "said David Thebault, head of quantitative trading at Global Equities.

"We must certainly take this into account (the difficulties of banks) in financing equipment for all aircraft manufacturers," judge his side an analyst based in London, in a note.

This risk is relative, however, under the control of German banks to lend and potentially U.S. institutions, said the analyst, who also refers to possible emergency measures on the part of the French state.

"There are ways to deal with it immediately: some will take the place of French banks – U.S. banks and Chinese – and there are other ways to finance an aircraft, especially to leasers (lessors ) and 'vendor financing' EADS ', also adds Christophe Menard, an analyst at Kepler.

These fears of financial difficulties echo the statements of some leaders of the aviation sector in the Istat, a conference on the financing of aircraft, held in Barcelona on Tuesday.

French banks, which accounted for about 31% in aircraft financing transactions in 2010, reduced their availability significantly, said on this occasion the chief financial officer of Ryanair, Howard Millar.

The five major central banks around the world, including the ECB, announced September 15 a coordinated commercial banks to offer loans in dollars in three months to prevent freezing of the money market which would be caused by the debt crisis sovereign in Europe.

European banks, particularly French, have seen their share price fall since the beginning of the summer on fears related to potential recapitalization needs and issues of liquidity in dollars, American money market funds and other traditional lenders Greek dollar fearing failure and potential devastating effects on the markets.

In this context, speculation saying that the French government could be forced to intervene to stop the bleeding is growing, especially as fears of a credit freeze remake regular surface due to the persistence of debt crisis in the euro area.

Politicians and bosses of banks took turns for several weeks to deny any need for new capital, but struggle to convince.

BNP Paribas, which has undertaken to strengthen its equity more quickly, said last week it would reduce the size of its balance sheet of about 10% by the end of 2012 and it would also reduce its needs funding dollar.

Societe Generale for its part intends to strengthen its capital of four billion euros by 2013, including asset sales and reducing their activity.

Wall Street opened slightly higher, the Fed caution

21st September

Wall Street opened the session Wednesday up timid, investors playing the card of caution before the results of the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve (FOMC).

In early trade, the Dow Jones gained 0.22% (25.50 points) to 11,435.98 points. The Standard & Poor's, largest, advanced 0.34% (3.82 points) to 1206.16 points while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.85% (22.07 points) to 2612.21 points.

The markets expect the Fed decides to influence long rates to support economic activity, an action similar to that conducted in the 60's and so called "Operation Twist". The release is expected around 18:15 GMT.

Values, General Motors rose 0.71%.The CEO of GM has expressed concern about the risk of a recession in the U.S. but it does provide a recovery in demand because of the need to replace an aging fleet in the major economies.

The technology sector gets its game after Oracle reported Tuesday a quarterly revenue slightly exceeded expectations and delivered a better than expected profit forecast for the current quarter.

The work of the specialist management software database jumped from 7.37% in early trade, while Adobe, which also announced better than expected forecasts for the fourth quarter, advancing 5.8%.

Pepsico appreciating the title of 1.65%. The group announced the creation of a board comprising its divisions drinks and food in order to achieve economies of scale, and reaffirmed its outlook statement for 2011.