European shares plunge again, the ECB does not reassure

4th August

European shares sink their media one after the other against a backdrop of slowing global growth, the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet who failed Thursday to allay concerns.

Since the beginning of the week, the European equity markets have lost about 290 billion euros of their value, two thirds of the 440 billion vested in the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), under the influence of fear of relapse the economy and the persistence of the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe.

"There are two important points in the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet that are quite contradictory: the desire to control inflation, meaning that eventually a new rate hike, and the possible injection of liquidity through repurchase obligations, "said Alexandre Baradez, market analyst at Saxo Bank.

Jean-Claude Trichet at a news conference after the monthly meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB has implicitly confirmed the recovery of market intervention, and stressed that inflation expectations in the euro area were remain firmly anchored.

If the part of speech of Jean-Claude Trichet on redemptions of bonds was expected by the market, allowing the index to delete then some of their losses, the talk about inflation is not necessarily what is more appropriate in the current environment, explains Alexandre Baradez.

"Inflation eats away at the debt and rising interest rates would not be appropriate when the level is already high in Europe.We also see that we do not ask this question in the United States, "said he.

THE CAC 40 COULD FALL TO LOWEST OF 2010

Around 4:45 p.m., the CAC 40 index fell 2.4% to 3371.62 points, after falling to 3362.35 points before, its lowest level since July 7, 2010.

Exchanges in London and Frankfurt lost 2.5% and 2.76%, while pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index (-2.39%) fell to its lowest level since July 2009.

As for the peripheral countries of the euro area, the situation is even more dramatic, the Athens Stock Exchange (-1.35%) finding its levels 14 years ago and the place of Lisbon (-2.46%) those of April 2009.

After pressing multiple media techniques, markets could even fall even lower.

"The CAC 40 may now fall to its next support at 3,350 points, and then go towards the lower end of the year 2010 at 3287 points," warned Alexander the Drogoff technical analyst at Aurel-BGC.

Moreover, all this should be done in a climate of increased volatility, analysts warn.

"The volatility of the Eurostoxx 50 is too low and this should be corrected," warns Gastaldy and Valerie, an analyst at Day By Day graphic.

"The implied volatilities have been very quiet in recent months, despite the intense agitation of the equity markets.Intermarket arbitrage operations are clearly under way: between the CDS, bonds and equities, and especially so on Eurostoxx50, "said she.

As for metals, an ounce of gold hit a new side of his most historic 1677.90 dollars in the wake of the conference of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

The euro yield 1.42% against the greenback at 1.4139 dollar. Baradez Alexander points out, however the relative strength of the euro against the dollar, which manages to stay in a range between 1.4150 to 1.43 dollar down without crossing the threshold of $ 1.40.

"On the foreign exchange market, we see that there is a seller of wind shelters currencies (dollar and yen) for the benefit of currency risk.This could be a harbinger of a renewed appetite for risky assets and therefore support the equity markets, "said he.

Nissan wants to nearly double its sales in China by 2015

26th July

Nissan Motor said Tuesday it intends to nearly double its annual sales in China to sell 2.3 million vehicles a year by the end of 2015.

Nissan, the first Asian manufacturer in China, plans to do to invest 50 billion yuan (5.3 billion euros) in this market, now the world's biggest car market.

This objective is part of the strategy of the Japanese manufacturer who wants to focus on emerging markets and increase its margin to 8% in the next six years.

"The strong partnership established with Dongfeng Motor was the main driver of growth over the last eight years the Chinese market," said the boss Carlos Ghosn of Nissan in the statement.

"The new plan, which includes investments in production capacity, products and innovation, will enable the Chinese market to remain the largest market for Nissan."

To propel its sales, currently 1.3 million vehicles a year, Nissan will launch 30 new products in the next five years, including electric vehicles under the brand Venucia, which will be marketed by 2015.

Last year, Nissan has won a record global market share of 5.8%.China's market share was 6.2%, ahead of Toyota Motor and Honda Motor.

In September, Carlos Ghosn announced a target of 10% market share in China, but did not specify a timetable.

In the first half of 2011, Dongfeng Motor, a joint venture between Dongfeng and Nissan, sold 734,440 vehicles in the Chinese market, which represents an increase of 13.4% over the previous year, against a 3.4% increase on all markets.

Rates drop after the Greek aid plan

22nd July

Bond rates to 10 years in Greece fell to 14.208% 15.988% Thursday against the closure. Their level of mid-April. Those of Portugal and Ireland also relax.

Greek bond rates fell Friday in a debt market that breathed, benefiting from the introduction of a bailout of the country also aims to prevent any risk of contagion in the euro area.

At 18:00, the rates of Greece in 10 years fell to 14.208% (15.988% Thursday against the fence), reaching the level of mid-April. 2-year rates fell to 26.304% (32.214% against), yields seen since early June. They moved again to 40% on Thursday morning before the summit. For their part, the 10-year rate fell back from Portugal to 10.506% (against 11.236%) and from Ireland to 11.636% (12.090% against).

The bond market has relaxed Globle Friday, although the announcement of Fitch on the failure of Greece weighed. The rating agency will place Franco-American debt in default part of Greece in the wake of a new European plan to help nearly 160 billion dollars going to save Athens from bankruptcy. "We knew it was going to result from the rating agencies put in default," notes Cyril Regnat, bond strategist at Natixis, while private creditors are the people involved to the tune of 50 billion euros.

Mr. Regnat regrets, however, "yet few details of the private sector. Certain terms must be defined." But "the contents of the plan is more favorable to the debts of the periphery (those of the most fragile, ie) as addressing the risks of contagion.Greece also has more time to repay debt and will receive support to its economy. "The bond market should return to more normal, although the rate of borrowing the most fragile countries remain very high , but away from their record high.

Overall, "the improvement in the securities bonds devices is expected to continue. The potential for lower rates is still significant," they said. They consider possible next standardization of the bond market, but warn that a return to levels much lower rates will take time.

Meanwhile, rates on 10-year bond retreated German and French as well, not undergoing correction that these securities have played their role as a refuge until the Europe Agreement reassure the markets.The German Bund was 2.826% (against 2.876%) and the French OAT at 3.415% (against 3.448%).

Outside the eurozone, the UK Gilt dropped to 3.106% against 3.173%. In the U.S. market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up to 2.980% against 3.014% Thursday evening, and the good relaxed to 30% against 4.312 to 4.277% yesterday. The three-month rate grew at 0.03% against 0.04% on Thursday.

On the interbank market, the three-month Euribor, the main rate in the euro zone rose to 1.611% against 1.608% Thursday and the three-month Libor in dollars remained stable at 0.253%.

Merkel calls for the creation of a European rating agency

18th July

The three major rating agencies, Fitch, S & P Moody etb are all Anglo-Saxon. They are accused of making the law on the financial world and aggravate the debt crisis in Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (here in Berlin in March 2011) criticizes the center holiday and retirement in the South of Europe

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was "important in the medium term" that Europe has its own rating agency, in an interview with public broadcaster ARD on Sunday. "It is important in the medium term that Europe has as a rating agency," she said, estimating that such an agency would be created by "the European economy" and not by States. "Alas, there is not so far had interest in the economy" to create such an agency, and "it is a lack," said Angela Merkel. "The Chinese are now also a rating agency.We can not of course create one through the states. But I really would welcome the fact that the economy manages to create a European rating agency, "she said.

Charged to the law on the financial world, the three major rating agencies are all Anglo-Saxon: Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch (which is, however, a French group Fimalac). Europe has committed early July a showdown with these agencies and called for the creation of a European body after the dramatic reduction in Portugal's sovereign rating by Moody's, relegated to speculative grade, which may worsen crisis debt in the eurozone.

The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said at the time that it was necessary to "break the oligopoly of rating agencies" and "limit their influence," while the President of the European executive, Jose Manuel Barroso, had been more further by ruling indirectly to the creation of a rating agency based in Europe. European Commissioner Viviane Reding of Justice has threatened a few days ago to dismantle the great Anglo-Saxon: "I see two possibilities: either the states of the G20 (note: the richest states in the world) decided to dismantle the three agencies. The U.S. would then have to turn the three agencies in six companies. Or European and Asian competitors are created, "said Commissioner Reding to the newspaper Die Welt.

Angela Merkel said that the rating agencies were not "bad in themselves" but "they act at times sensitive, and we currently have such a sensitive time with the euro, and they (…) absolutely do not consider what is reasonable. " According to the German chancellor, "we must think to see if we should believe everything they say." Following the financial crisis, Europe has adopted two laws in 2009 to strengthen the regulation of rating agencies, including requiring them to register and follow certain rules in order to practice in the EU, and placing under the direct control of the European financial markets.

Icahn proposes $ 10.2 billion for Clorox

15th July

The businessman Carl Icahn proposed Friday to $ 10.2 billion on the table to buy Clorox, a maker of bleach.

The offer represents investor 76.50 dollars per share, a premium of 12% over the closing price of Clorox Thursday night. He already owns 9.4% of the company.

In a letter to the CEO of Clorox, Carl Icahn said he had great confidence to see other groups for Clorox to purchase at a higher price.

Carl Icahn offerings have traditionally a positive impact on share prices of groups in which it invests.

He said companies specializing in consumer products would make interesting synergies if they were to acquire Clorox.He said not to exclude offers $ 100 representing the action on the part of groups such as Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive, Reckitt Benckiser, Kimberly-Clark, Henkel or SC Johnson, an unlisted group.

Analysts industry experts question the advice given by Carl Icahn, holding that the Clorox product line is not necessarily the most attractive for groups that already have a foothold in the consumer products.

Lafarge will sell most of its plaster Belgian Etex

14th July

Lafarge announced on Thursday to be entered into exclusive negotiations with the Belgian group Etex to divest its cast him in Europe and South America for an enterprise value of one billion euros.

The world's leading cement said in a statement that the net amount it receives from the sale will amount to 850 million euros, a sum that will go to debt relief program for more than two billion euros announced by the Group for 2011 .

Around 9:30, the action Lafarge wins 1.74% to 40.32 euros, highest increase of only two CAC 40 stocks in the green Thursday morning.

"There are a number of important procedural steps, which are employee consultation and consultation with competition authorities, and all this should lead us to conclude before the end of the year," said the CEO of Lafarge Bruno Lafont, in a telephone interview with Reuters.

Plaster group activities in Europe and South America have generated a consolidated turnover of 895 million euros last year, and EBITDA of 115 million euros.They represent two-thirds of the smallest industry of Lafarge, whose total turnover stood at 1.4 billion euros in 2011.

The cement also world number three and so far the concrete plaster, said that after the operation, it will retain a 20% stake in the company that is born of the merger activities of both groups, participation that Lafarge will be able to give in to Etex beyond five years.

The sale of Lafarge Gypsum has long been the subject of recurring rumors. The project announced Thursday allows the group to significantly exceed the target of disinvestment of EUR 750 million it has set for 2011.Asked about the fate of other activities plaster group, in North America, Asia and Australia, Bruno Lafont has refused to make a comment.

French growth: it cracks across

8th July

The Bank of France added his voice to the chorus of warnings about the activity in France. If the official growth forecast of 2% for 2011 is not threatened, and the second half of 2012 ahead full of pitfalls. 8 reasons to worry.

After starting the year with a bang and win government news, bad news for economic activity accumulate France. The growth of the French economy would slow sharply to 0.2% in the second quarter, after 0.9% in the first, according to a new forecast of the Bank of France on Friday. Twice less than the 0.4% proposed so far. This prediction is consistent with that of the INSEE table but on a rebound in the second half that would achieve growth of 2% throughout the year.Is the goal set by the government or the estimate recently published by the IMF for the country. The fact remains that the multiplication of negative indicators in the space of just a few days lead to worry, if not the achievement of these targets, at least on the exact health the French economy. Overview.

The effect of restocking is complete

After destocking during the lean times, companies have begun to replenish their stocks at the time of recovery. This was a technical factors determining the good performance of industrial production in the first quarter. Inventory changes have indeed contributed 0.7 point to growth in the first three months of the year. But this dope is now closed. Stocks are "slightly above the desired level" according to the survey of the Bank of France to the business.

The business climate is deteriorating

The indicator of business climate of the Bank of France in June fell below its long-term average (100 points) in the industry, he moved to 99 points (against 103 in May) and the services it totaled 99 points (against 100). After collapsing with the crisis can be raised above its average, the indicator relapse so far. The outlook is simple to stability in the industry, and progression to moderate pace in services.

The activity and order books are progressing more

Sales in France fell sharply in the scheme in June, according to the firm that publishes a Markit PMI closely watched by economists. In manufacturing industry, manufacturers have never produced so little since July 2009. And services, providers reported the lowest increase in their course of business for the past six months.Not surprising if one looks closely at the level of order books. The rate of expansion of new business across all sectors, has a lowest in 22 months. As a result, sales increased slightly both in the domestic market and export.

The foreign trade deficit breaks all records

The negative balance of trade balance reached 7.4 billion euros in May from 7.2 billion in April, according to customs statistics released Thursday. Numbers never seen before. The first five months of the year, it settled at 33.4 billion: an amount up 60% year on year, which already represents nearly two-thirds of the annual deficit in 2010. It should beat the 2011 record high year over 55 billion reached in 2008, at the height of the crisis. "What is happening is very serious," has acknowledged the Secretary of State for Foreign Trade Pierre Lellouche.Structurally, this huge deficit arises because the issue of competitiveness of French companies because, in addition to the energy bill, it is linked to a very low growth of industrial exports. But this poor performance will lead short-term French growth. In the first quarter, foreign trade had already withdrawn 0.4 points to GDP growth.

The engine of consumption is down

Purchases of goods of French households fell 0.8% in May after having fallen back by 1.4% in April and 0.9% in March. Not since the summer of 2008, just before the outbreak of the financial crisis, to find three consecutive months of falling consumption in France. This further decline was a surprise to all analysts who had forecast the contrary, a strong rebound after falling in April.Apparently, rising prices, both energy and food prices begins to do damage. What to ask a possibly prolonged failure of traditional engine of French growth. Especially as the unemployment figures do not grow to be optimistic.

Stop to the decline in unemployment

After four consecutive months of improvement in the unemployment figures, the announcement of a net 0.7% increase in the number of unemployed in May was the effect of a cold shower. The total number of people seeking work, including those who have worked reduced jumped even more sharply from 1% to 4.078 million, its highest level since the 2008 crisis.Despite its growth forecast of 2% this year, INSEE also does not open embellished, and expects the unemployment rate down to 9% at end 2011, against 9.2% in the first quarter, while the government hoped to pass a rate below 9%.

Business bankruptcies remain high

Direct consequence of the weakness in consumption, business failures recorded in France in the second quarter remained stable at a high level, the company said Thursday Altares. Despite the economic recovery, the number has in fact declined by only 0.3% over the period, with 14,397 judgments backup, reorganization or liquidation. Three quarters of the failing firms employing fewer than three employees."Rather than present in the food trade, catering, services to the person or business, these structures are struggling to resist in the face of sluggish consumer spending."

The building is not going that well

When the building is all is, the saying goes. If he is right, the return to growth in new housing construction in 2011 after three years of decline must be hope. Indeed, professionals considering an increase of 2.2% this year which will result in hiring. But this improvement may be short-lived as the housing market is threatened with blocking. It is indeed faced with a double upward movement, the price of m2 and that of interest rates. A coincidence which had not been seen since 2000 and is likely to stopping sales, as well as new, as in the former, as indicated by recent Century 21.Or the real estate market feeds the secondary market for home furnishings. This may also weigh on household consumption.

Obama warns against a new downturn

7th July

If Congress does not fall under the ceiling of U.S. debt, it could "create a new race to a second recession, or worse," the president said during a question and answer session with users of Twitter .

President Barack Obama warned Wednesday against a new economic recession, "or worse" if ever the Congress is not the ceiling of the debt of the United States.

Do not raise the debt ceiling could "create a new race to a second recession, or worse," Obama said during a question and answer session at the White House with users of the platform Twitter micro-blogs.

"This is something with which we should not play," saidObama, who must find Thursday at the White House leaders Republicans and Democrats in Congress to try to reach agreement on raising the cap and reducing the deficit by the deadline set by the Treasury on 2 August.

"Congress has a responsibility to ensure that we pay our bills. We have always paid in the past. The notion that the United States would find themselves in default on their debt is simply irresponsible," said President.

"And I expect that next week or the next two weeks, Congress is working with the White House to reach an agreement that resolves the issue of the deficit, solve our debt problems, and ensures that faith in our reliability (financial) is preserved, "he said.

"On turning the other", when the theater takes over crisis

24th June

Arte broadcasts on Saturday excerpts from "A reversal on the other," a drama into poetry, written by economist Frédéric Lordon. L'Expansion. Com you this. A poem … "On the other reversal" was read in May Centquatre in Paris with Jacques and Denis Podalydès Bonnaffé. You can see excerpts on Saturday June 25 at 0:50 in the show Metropolis "Art and Finance" on Arte.

He is an economist, could not be more serious

But what took him? It would be interesting

To know, frankly, why he wrote

Not another essay, but a real comedy

I would ask him, the big problem is

It does not take reporters with gloves

This upset some people, I even paid the price

It was terrible, one day I will tell you.

The fact is that the theater began Lordon

His text was read in a room CentQuatre

Denis played Podalydès Sarkozy

The room was packed, the audience laughed.

"On turning the other" condenses three years of crisis

While Alexandria, he says taking

Hostage of the State by the markets, these ungrateful

Who took his money, the nasty villains!

For once saved, perfectly requinquées

Against their protector, the banks have avenged

"Down with the servants! Down the deficit!"

"The debt disappear! Faster! Faster!"

The deficit arises course of their rescue

But this point of detail they have quickly forgotten

Their role in the story, they prefer to deny

The thing that matters is that the state is wise

But the guy is extravagant, the irresponsible

And for that we must punish him, to be intractable

The best is yet to speculate on its debt

It will serve as a lesson to the mat.

So that puts the angry Lordon

Look at the edge of a nervous breakdown.

He wrote full articles, books

He says he dissects, analyzes, in vain!

The people remain passive, he notes, he said.

He believes he can not change his fate.

Therefore it was necessary to the drama:

Ideas alone was too theoretical.

The thesis is radical, some would say simplistic

In fact Lordon is "appalled", a Marxist.

The stuffing is published and it caused a sensation

It only remains to make the revolution.

Brazil, a giant with feet of clay

23rd June

Brazil is a good student with super markets. And it is well deserved, because its economy is booming. But this growth is built on a sand castle: a credit bubble that threatens to explode while the country still lacks infrastructure badly.

While Greece is mired in crisis and worries that the U.S. debt growing, Brazil is the super good student. Evidence, the U.S. agency Moody's has just raised a notch the rating of "Baa3" from "Baa2." A reward that the giant Latin has well deserved. Its growth has been around 7% last year and may exceed 5% this year. Is that rising commodity prices boost exports of the country seriously.At the same time, household spending is boosted by wage increases and the dynamism of the labor market: 1.2 million new jobs were created in the first five months of the year.

But this frenetic pace could not last in the coming years. A closer inspection, the Brazilian economy is fragile. Indeed, the credit, with an increase of 10-20% per year, which pulls in household consumption. Houses, cars, goods of the house, while the Brazilians will borrow. Gold rises in interest rates repeatedly to counter inflation seriously complicate the loans because the burden of debt explodes. While banks engage in an average rate of almost 40%, the number of households that pushes their deadlines by at least 90 days jumped from 6.1%.It should also pass the threshold of 8% by the end of the year, according to Ricardo Loureiro, president of the credit rating agency Experian. Defects that could weaken the financial system and cause a credit crunch.

To this is added the bubble severe lack of reliable infrastructure including transport and electricity, to ensure sustained, stable growth beyond 5%. Capital spending 17% of GDP against 50% in China, 28% in Thailand and even 23% in Mexico. But the country is expected to work extra hard in the coming years, in the context of two major events: World Cup football in 2014 and the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. But this will require that the Brazilians are a little more time for ants because the level of savings (16% of GDP) is much too low.