From Tokyo to Wall Street, via Frankfurt, Paris or London, the world stock markets have been strongly shaken on Monday by the deterioration of the credit rating of the United States. The specter of a new stock market crash is on everyone's mind. In Asia, the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed down 3.79% Monday, August 8. Why stock markets loosen?
Initially, it is the debt crisis of the Greek and European, who threw the trouble in the markets. Even the European rescue plan last July 21 is reached only very briefly restore investor confidence. Since every day is bad news was sinking deeper into the red exchanges. In late July, the U.S. announced a low growth in the first half (+1.3%) and something unique, a downward revision of growth earlier.The slowdown in industrial activity, lower consumption, and uncertainty on global growth while adding to the uncertainty room. At the same time, fears the strongest focus on the U.S. debt crisis, for which the consensus seems impossible to find. On 2 August, a few hours of the deadline, Democrats and Republicans finally agree to increase the ceiling on the debt. But markets were not satisfied with this agreement as a minimum, no resolutions have been taken seriously to reduce the deficit. The rating agency S & P, which called for an agreement is reached 4 trillion dollars of debt reduction ends up putting his terrible threat. Friday, it fell for the first time in its history the U.S. debt rating to AA +.The perfect ingredients for an explosive mix together: the problem of rising debt and sluggish growth concerns, which eventually self-sustaining. On the European side, where stock markets have dropped tremendously due to the debt crisis of the European, the penalty is double, the markets continue to tumble.
Companies are they for something?
Companies are not completely foreign to the decline. The second quarter results have indeed disappointed the markets, especially in Europe, where companies suffer from the downward revisions of growth in Asian countries. Some of them are even forced to carry warnings about results, after first quarter yet considered excellent. In the United States on the other hand, companies have greatly benefited from sustained growth in Latin America and favorable foreign exchange effects.Thus, in the second quarter, 71% of U.S. companies have published the results above expectations, against only 46% in Europe. In detail, the most battered markets are industrials, technology and raw materials, that is to say the most exposed to global growth … However, the health of companies is not as bad as it sounds, and has participated only slightly in summer stock unscrewing. "The CAC 40 companies for example are for the most beneficiaries. What more shocking is the difference between the optimism a few months ago and gloom," said Christian Parisot, an economist at Aurel Level .
Can we talk about stock market crash?
The definition of crash-sudden and precipitous decline in the index of one or more places worldwide, is not absolutely clear.Economists agree that there is crash when the index lost more than 10% in one session, and / or 20% in a few days, which only happened twice in the twentieth century, 1929 and 1987. Even in 2008 at the height of the financial crisis, we have not seen a stock market crash, but only to a very high price volatility. This does not mean that the situation is not alarming either. Since the last above, July 22, several European indices like the CAC 40 lost more than 15%. Moreover, the concern of investors is more about the resulting decline in prices on the magnitude of this decline: from 10 days now the markets are falling continuously, including a first for the CAC 40. This means that in 15 days, any economic indicator, no technical rebound has allowed the evidence to blow.
How far this can go down?
This day of Monday is crucial. All weekend, governments and central bankers worldwide have struggled to find solutions to avoid the emergence of a new Lehman Brothers. In France, Nicolas Sarkozy has stepped up calls with its European counterparts, particularly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The G7 finance ministers also met in the night from Sunday to Monday and pledged to "take all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth." Understand the central banks are ready to inject liquidity in the markets in a panic. As for the ECB, it was prepared to buy back the debt if the Spanish and Italian investors deserted.The result was encouraging since at the opening of European stock, the dreaded crash did not occur. But as and when the day, the situation has worsened. At 4:30 p.m. in Paris, the benchmark index fell nearly 4%, as investors kept their eyes on Wall Street. Almost an hour after opening, the U.S. stock markets lost more than 3%. The crash is not excluded.
In the longer term, it is very difficult to predict what will happen in the markets. "Everything will depend on the credibility of political solutions in place to absorb the debt crises on one side and across the Atlantic, said Christian Parisot. While at present, governments have made important decisions, their implementation is delayed. "In Europe including the pace of the support plan, which must not pass the national parliaments by the end of September, largely contributes to the crisis of investor confidence. Moreover, "everything depends on the practical implementation of plans to reduce deficits. If growth continues despite the cuts, then the market can regain some momentum," said Christian Parisot. But for the latter, as any good macroeconomic indicator will not be published, global indices remain capes, investors are not willing to pay dearly in the future of stock exchanges as unstable.